With the current sitting-duck president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) trying to pull all strings to extend her 10 years in office by changing the constitution; a clear frontrunner emerges among the presidential candidates for the scheduled 10th of May 2010 election.
His family heritage and legacy give hope to millions of ordinary Filipinos and big parts of the political elite also.
But can he win and does he have he the guts and long-term stamina to overcome a climate of corruption, vote rigging and cronyism in a country long starved of the fruits of the labor of its people?
To answer that, you will surely have to wait until all votes are in and counted. But one thing is clear, the coming months until and after Election day will be very interesting, with a strange mix of political veterans, actors, clerics and other illustrious figures fighting to gain the trust and support of lobbyists and voters.
The Glorious Days
One thing is clear, the country is sick of its current president. While Gloria had a slow, yet hopeful start when taking office from then Joseph Estrada; her picture in the public turned more sour over the years.
Which is in a way a bit ironic, as in her first years she tried a lot of innovative things, but was hindered front and aft by an old political elite trying to fight any change that could reduce their own political influence, by transferring financial and political power towards reformist sides. The first 5-7 years of her presidency were basically wasted in internal struggles, with little progress for the country to show. The Philippines lacked badly among its Asian neighbors during the economic up-swings of the post-Asian-Financial-Crisis years. While a real emerging economy before 1998, the country was recently overtaken even by chronic laggards like Vietnam or Indonesia in economic or political stability and outlook.
The last 2-3 years actually showed the Philippines steaming forward again, at least in the domestic markets – with the country having survived the recent Worldwide Financial Crisis relatively autark and unscathed, with large parts of infrastructure upgraded from ‘Glora cares’ programs. You can see the infrastructural progress all around the country, roads and highways are constructed, hospitals and governmental institutions upgraded and also Callcenter and English-teaching business striving,
So why then the tiredness of the Philippine people towards Gloria Arroyo?
It was simply too little too late. A string of political scandals, miscommunication and caught with lies makes Gloria’s legacy look dim currently. The newspapers are full of her wasting money on business trips, dining in expensive American restaurants spending a year’s salary of an ordinary Filipino on a single evening, or about her breast operation camouflaged as routine checkup (which is actually her private matter, but she was caught lying about it another time again).
Trouble is looming
In September, even a bill was filed in congress to avoid former presidents to stay in power, if an election doesn’t yield clear results. It should define a mode of succession, if the 2010 polls will fail, all to prevent for the incumbent to stay in power past her terms. Also fear is present, that GMA might try to pull a ‘Putin’ by changing the constitution to allow for her to stay in power by other means.
Gloria was recently awarded the bitter award to be in the Top 5 of ‘The Country’s worst Jackasses’ of popular BLISS magazine (she made the number 3 spot actually, just after ‘Erap’ Estrada), for disappointing performance, forgetting her principles, pardoning predecessor Estrada and ruining the country’s political and judicial institutions.
As the polls in May 2010 will also be the first ones using a new electronic voting system, trouble is looming behind the horizon. Many Senators and Congressmen fear a very messy affair, if things turn out unexpectedly. The electronic data streams and outcome will be transferred through the country’s ordinary telephone systems, which operate at less than 100% efficiency. Another typhoon or probably already some bad weather, mechanical failure or even power outages during that stressful time could affect or interrupt the process for hours if not days – thus causing havoc or political uncertainty.
What are the choices?
Currently, almost a dozen candidates have clearly stated, that they intend to run for president. But it looks like less than a handful have a real chance to rake up the necessary support and voter numbers.
Among them is even former president Joseph ‘ERAP’ Estrada (yeah right; the same actor who plundered the country’s riches already over a period of only 3 years before being swept away by the so-called EDSA revolution).
Senator Manny Villar, is the president of the Nacionalista Party (NP), a successful, self-made business man and long-term politician. He is considered the 5th richest man in the Philippines.
Gilberto Teodoro Jr. was voted 42-5 by secret balloting as the candidate of the current administration and the Lakas-Kampi party. He is a licensed commercial pilot, Colonel in the Philippine Air Force reserve and currently Defense Minister of the Philippines.
Eduardo Villanueva, is a TV business man, evangelist and the founder of the ‘Jesus is Lord Church’ in the Philippines (Bro. Eddie, how he is called also, lost last time against GMA).
Senator Benigno Aquino III of the liberal party is a full-time politician. He is the only son of former president Corazon Aquino (who just died recently, but is still revered by many as the first ‘true democratic’ president; having restored many of the democratic institutions after the Marcos years). His sister is popular TV celebrity and socialite Kris Aquino.
Noli de Castro, the current Vice President of the country, is also expected to throw in his ring and run for President this time around. Although associated with the Arroyo administration, he was the first independent candidate to receive the highest number of votes in a Philippine senatorial election and the first elected independent Vice President of the Philippines.
Now what?
Especially Benigno Aqunio III looks currently like a very interesting and strong candidate.
Then hopeful and popular, leading party figure of the liberal party LDP, Senator Manuel ‘Mar’ Roxas, a serious contender for president himself, renounced his own ambitions as recently as September and joined Noynoy’s bid as running mate and potential Vice President.
They declared that their goal is ”to right the wrong, to fight corruption, to fight what’s wrong in the country.”
When a pre-poll was conducted a few weeks back, Senator Benigno Aquino III was leading the pack with a percentage of 40-50% of the votes, with the other places coming in at only 12-17% or even below. Although this pre-poll was only conducted in the Metro Manila area, that’s where almost 40% of the voters are located. How convenient for politicians with deep pockets. So the decision will probably fall here anyway, but don’t let those numbers fool you.
Conclusion
Even though Senator Benigno Aquino III, known as ‘Noynoy’ currently looks like a new and promising hope for many, the outcome is far from certain. In the Philippines, like in other developing countries also, voting isn’t a straight-forward process.
Votes are bought, manipulated or simply whole elections are still being rigged, by the powers in the background that are interested more in their own wellbeing than the country’s.
Hopefully the new electronic voting system will be a boon to avoid that, but it is still to early to tell.
Also the complacency of the average Filipino with politics can lead to low turnout, which in return could be a benefit for political veterans with the most money, deepest pockets and connections in spreading or distributing parts of their wealth to actively sway voters.
It’s hard to cover Philippine politics in just one articles, but maybe I could raise your interest a bit. Please also join the discussion below, if you are a Filipino or Filipina planning to vote for one or the other candidate and please tell others why!